Saturday, April 12, 2008

Things 2 remember

Everytime the stock market drops, the cheerleaders state that you would miss out on the gains if you are not in the market. They are correct, but every law has a corollary. How much money would you lose if you were fully invested during the 5% biggest down days in the last 40 yrs. A couple of examples include the 1987 mkt meltdown-20% in 2 days. 1994, 1998, 2000-2002. U would be broke. The fact is that the biggest rallies occur during bear markets as the shorts get scared and bid up prices as profits try to get locked in. Hence in bull markets, the biggest drops occur for the same reason. In this environment-renting stocks-buying OS and selling OB is the strategy. Buy and Hold is not going to perform.

No comments: