Friday, April 18, 2008

Here Comes the Spin

The plan is unfolding as the Master Planners are hard at work trying to spin the recent news on earnings. GOOG blew past earnings estimates, C posted terrible earnings (15 bln in writedowns), but the talk remains that the kitchen sink was thrown intothe numbers and the worst is over -for now. MER was the same situation y'day as the shorts did not get enough bad news to maintain positions. The mkt sentiment is too negative and a relief rally for the SP500 to 1400-1420 is likely.
Needless to say, the gold and oil mkts are being used as a source of funds by the hot money crowd. The talk is shifting to the FED being one and done (25 bps on April 30). Hence that is being perceived as positive by the USD bulls as the spin of the FED being concerned about inflation has the mkt looking to lock in recent profits.
CAT reported good earnings-mainly due to growth outside the US-a recurring theme. NOK reported poor earnings, partly due to the strong EURO. European politicians are all over the ECB to lower rates, but the ECB being controlled by the Germans is not budging-inflation still running ahead of the upper end of their band.
US Treasuries have been hammered this week as the mkt wakes up to the fact that the world is not going to end. The 2 yrs have moved from 1.60% to 2.20%. There is a pile of money on the sidelines (2-3 trillion) by some estimates and it will soon be forced into the mkt. What they buy is anybodies guess, but I suspect financials and tech.
As I write, gold is down 30$ to 912 and oil is down 2$ to 113. These are the weak $ tradesand they are being unwound as the chatter from the street regarding a vigilant FED and the crisis being over takes hold.

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