Monday, April 28, 2008

3 Trillion in MMKT funds

Plenty of talk of the amount of money in mmkt funds. The main issue is what about the amount of money owed on housing and credit cards and other auto loans. has this money been earmarked for debt repayment, or is this discretionary savings from the upper 25% that will rotate back into risky assets. Some is definitely going to equities as the real rates in short fixed income instruments are negative. The rally in fixed income due to the belief that the FED was going to cut rates to Japan like levels is over. The inflation bogeyman is starting to wake. Long term bonds have broken their uptrends. Rising rates are not going to help equity valuations. Portfolio mgrs still use the FED model of earnings yield vs the inverse of the 10 yr treasury yield. That is wrong IMO as the credit quality is mis matched. The 10 yr BBB yield index is more appropriate.

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