Friday, April 18, 2008

Prediction

With little economic data between now and month end, the mkt will focus on earnings and only earnings. The mkt is going up as the sellers have stayed too late at the party and the buyers are going to be joined by the short covering bid. Oil and Gold will trade weak until at least Tuesdayas the PTB makes its move. The SSEC (Shanghai) index continues to give backs its gains as the mkt prices more closely with its HK equivalents. As an example-Petro China has lost half its value (595 bln) as the arbitrage goes whittled down (As a refresher PTR was trading with a mkt cap north of 1 trillion in Shanghai, but only at less than half that value in the US).
The USD is due for a technical bounce, but that is it. Gold and Oil will suffer-probably testing 900 and 105 respectively. However, the mkt action on the equities will be interesting over the next 3 days. Watch for divergences

Canada is starting to catch the US cold. Housing sales dropped markedly in Feb. (partly due to the weather) and the LEI dropped .3. This is likely to play out in other countries as growth slows.

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