Monday, September 15, 2008

Is there enough blood yet?

The bankruptcy of Lehman, followed by Merrill being acquired by Bank of America, and AIG desparately seeking capital. All equities are for sale as the realization that they actually do go to zero is resulting in a repricing of risk. Good, BAd and purely awful stocks are for sale-no buyers of substance. Expect more selling tomorrow as the mutual fund redemptions get exercised.
Some of the losses are truly amazing as the lack of capital across the spectrum is hampering any buying. The Hedge Funds-especially the undercapitalized ones are getting squeezed.

SEC is making comments about short selling -tightening the standards for short selling-trying to curb the abuse. Nothing like trying to influence the markets after the cow has left the barn. Unless there are serious consequences for 'illegal' shorts, they will continue.

Gold up, but not by much-only 2%. Oil crushed as the reality of a prolonged economic slump takes hold. Waiting for a supply response to the demand drop. Already hearing chatter about some oil sand projects being shelved. Treasury bonds are getting bid to the moon as the flight to safety continues. USDX is up as the USD benefits from the return of capital to the US-all the emerging mkts are under pressure as deleveraging continues. Not sure about property rights in emerging markets.

Stay tuned, the beginning of the end is near as the panic level is rising. Maintain capital.

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