Friday, September 5, 2008

Banks saving themselves

Have not posted for a while, but now that I am back from summer vacation only to watch the markets melt down , my brain is on full crash alert. The mkt lacks leadership in both stocks and institutions. The banks are trying to save themselves from insolvency. Global financial institutions are sticking it to their clients as they refuse to lend capital. If you want money-too bad. They are going to save themselves first and then maybe help their clients. This is extremely bad for the economy and the long term inflation implications. The Greenspan doctrine was to lend money to everyone and create competition -thus keeping a cap on prices. If competition declines-watch prices rise or at a minimum not cecline. Look at the auto and airline industry-price cuts after price cuts as an industry inmassive oversupply tries to survive.
Investors have their hand on their wallets as there appears to be little appetitie for additonal risk taking. Bill Gross's commentary basically calling for a bailout of the financial system indicates 'things' are bad. Hedge funds, banks, and brokers are deleveraging in a massive way-everything is for sale. Good, bad and ugly assets are for sale-no bid is a bad bid. P/E multiples are inaccurate as are EV/EBITDA, P/BV and any metric. This survival of the fittest.
This mornings employment report drive home the point that US workers are losing jobs-more to come as the full effect of auto shutdowns and financial lay offs filter through the system.

Capital preservation followed by dividend/interest income are the two priorities. Capital gains are not in the cards for 95% of financial assets.
As a side note-the credit mkt spreads are wide and remaining wide-indicating capital is scarce. We have the FED plowing money into the banks, and the banks hoarding it because their balance sheets are a disaster.

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