Thursday, September 11, 2008

Are we going to see the BIG ONE

Lehman is on the ropes. WaMu is on the ropes. Will they get bailed out, or will the gov't see how their damage control plans works?.

Lehman is a prime broker and it is no doubt reducing financing to the hedge fund crowd. As is every other prime broker reducing financing to the hedge fund crowd. The bankers are saving their own skin once again, not helping their clients. The strong banks are sitting back and waiting for the plunge-hoarding cash waiting for even better prices. Why buy LEH at 10-13, when u can buy it for 2?

Asset sales are global, the pain is starting to bite which means the downtrend is probably half over. I expect a policy shift at the next FED meeting to move some of this hoarded cash off the balance sheet. The PPT is busy trying to help the US consumer out-dumping crude contracts as well as a host of grain contracts. No problem here with that process, but how long will it go for. OPEC has already announced a supply response. THe grain crops are going to be massive in Australia this year, but if prices drop too far, the North American crops will be reduced next yr. The government should get out of the price adjusting game and let free market mechanisms work.

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