Oil/Gold and other commodities.

The commodities complex is enduring a bout of profit taking. There is no doubt that 4$ gas and 130 oil is starting to destroy demand. In any bull market, it is not the peaks that are important, it is the valleys-how much of a pullback can we expect. Taking the standard 20% from 135 gives us a 108 target.
As for gold, 20% of 1030 is approx. 830. The mkt needs to wash out the johnny come lately, weak handed momentum players who chase performance. This will happen and I look for the mkt to consolidate through the summer, before the late q3, early q4 move higher. Risk is being pared back, and even more important is credit/leverage is being reduced.