Friday, May 2, 2008

Just buy anything not fixed income

The money masters are at it again. The FED succumb to the mkts and cut rates by 25 bps and then spun the move as hawkish on inflation. Then the Treasury Sec. says the worst of THIS crisis is almost over (I agree, but there are more crises around the corner). Things are so good that the FED has expanded the liquidity at the TAF to 75 bln and by expanding the list of permissible collateral. As explained earlier, by allowing the Wall Street Banks to borrow USTs which can be margined at at least 20:1, and giving the FED toxoic junk which has no margainable quality (maybe 3:1), the FED has stopped the forced selling. On top of that, the pile of cash in FI is getting forced into the mkt since rates are so low. The game continues again.
Maybe the mkt will wake up and realize what is going on, but right now the bears are getting a margin call. 1420 on the SP500 was the bounce back retracement and 1450 maybe the outside objective. Remember the Wall Street and the monkeys story. The big money has been buying for the last 4 weeks and now the marketing campaign accelerates to bring in the retail buyer. The only question is how much money does the retail investor have given their credit card is bulging and their mortgage needs to be refinanced.

Even the Las Vegas casinos are struggling-they need to find some new marks-same with Wall Street. Wall Streets' reputation is in tatters across the globe as the garbage they produced on these securitized instruments spread. As the saying goes-u can buy anything you want, but selling it to someone else at a profit is the trick.

The mkt tone is good as the flood of new liquidity finds its way into the mkt. Housing is dead, so the money will find its way into more liquid assets. Oil needs to correct to 100-105, but gold is back to its break out level of 850. All sorts of media talking of the commodity bubble being over, while it is time to buy financials. Don Coxe thinks otherwise. Lets see what the real money-ie foreign money mgrs think. China and India need to feed and house their citizens, not support Wall Street execs pay packages.

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