Saturday, May 3, 2008

The circle of credit

Here is an interesting article regarding the price of oil

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2008/0502.html

Very interesting, especially if you take it one step further. What if the US gov't in collaboration with the Saudis have been holding the price of energy high to pay for the US Gov't deficit. One can not just raise taxes in the US to pay for the spending of the US Govt, no, one just puts an indirect tax on the entire globe, but in particular the relatively poorer emerging giants China and India. Is oil worth 115/barrel, not likely but more like 80-90 given the cost of the marginal barrel. The Saudis in turn take their windfall profits and then buy USTs to complete the circle of credit. Unfortunately this arrangement will eventually break down as all price fixing schemes do-eventually more supply hits the mkt and the pyramid collapses-more than likely once George and Dick leave office. In addition, the Mid East oil producers are busy building the 21st century edition of the Great pyramids. Check out this website:
http://burjdubaiskyscraper.com/

With gas pushing 3.50 a gallon, and WTIC at 115/ barrel, the refiners are getting hammered. Also Nat gas is @ 10.60 , the ratio of oil to gas is North of 10, when it should trade at 8. However, one has to look at Nat Gas to refined products, and that is not quite as dramatic in the ratio, as that Nat Gas to gasoline ratio has ranged from 9.0 to 2.5-currently at 3.6.

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