Friday, November 7, 2008

US Unemployment

In true US Gov't fashion, the employment report shows a drop of 240K for October. But more important, a massive downward revision to August and Septemeber. Gee, was there an election this yr-u betcha. Workforce increased 800k, and of the 800k-600k were unemployed. Finally the US is getting back to reality. Expect large revisions to q3 GDP and for the recession to be dated for early 2008. Once again the rear view mirror is crystal clear with the gov't.

Going forward-expect to see an unwind of all the Republican efforts to make the economy better than what it was before the election. That ploy failed miserably-maybe the gov't will learn that doctoring/shading numbers is a failed strategy and will only affect short term decisions. Unemployment rate up to 6.5%-proabably on its way to 8-8.5%. One bright spot-avg hourly earnings up slightly.

FACT: The largest economy is in a tailspin. NOW that the truth is out and the disease has been identified, maybe the proper treatment can be administered.

As an aside-part of the large revisions is due to reduced government employment. Deficits do matter Mr. Cheney.

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