Friday, November 7, 2008

Solving the US crisis

In the immortal words of Walter Ruether-'That's great Henry (Ford), now who are you going to sell your cars to'

Executives better realign their moral compasses and realize that shipping jobs off shore to low wage countries is killing their consumer base. Low wage countries buy basic necessities, not luxury items. In addition, CEO compensation of 500X the average employee pay is ridiculous, as it was at 300X and 400X. Maybe the top brass should take a pay cut and come down from their exalted ivory tower.

Going forward, I suspect the democrats to implement policies that are going to be hard on the wealthy. Whether or not some 'income redistribution' takes place via gov't actions remains to be seen. But given the fat cat pay packages on Wall Street being slashed, expect to see all sorts of layoffs in the staf of these people. No more trickle down economics.

Hedge Fund Implosion

Hedge funds remain in liquidation mode: Important dates going forward

Nov. 15: Last day to announce the intention to redeem for Nov. 30.

Nov. 30: Yr end for Goldman and Morgan Stanley, plus hedge fund liquidation

Dec. 31: YR end-tax loss selling, capital gain crystalization.

US Unemployment

In true US Gov't fashion, the employment report shows a drop of 240K for October. But more important, a massive downward revision to August and Septemeber. Gee, was there an election this yr-u betcha. Workforce increased 800k, and of the 800k-600k were unemployed. Finally the US is getting back to reality. Expect large revisions to q3 GDP and for the recession to be dated for early 2008. Once again the rear view mirror is crystal clear with the gov't.

Going forward-expect to see an unwind of all the Republican efforts to make the economy better than what it was before the election. That ploy failed miserably-maybe the gov't will learn that doctoring/shading numbers is a failed strategy and will only affect short term decisions. Unemployment rate up to 6.5%-proabably on its way to 8-8.5%. One bright spot-avg hourly earnings up slightly.

FACT: The largest economy is in a tailspin. NOW that the truth is out and the disease has been identified, maybe the proper treatment can be administered.

As an aside-part of the large revisions is due to reduced government employment. Deficits do matter Mr. Cheney.